A group of Americans residing in Taiwan are seen gathering at a bar, watching streaming videos for live results of the election and the speech by Donald Trump on TV and laptops, before the final ...

Monthly trading volume in prediction markets surged from under $100 million in early 2024 to over $13 billion by the end of ...

Americans have long been familiar with “horse race” polls that accompany elections in the United States. But since 2008, a new polling tool has gained prominence, one that not only suggests which ...

A regular traveler is planning an overseas trip but hasn't purchased her plane ticket. So she visits various websites that can predict whether the cost of her ticket will rise or fall. Two sites say ...

One of the big changes in election coverage that emerged in 2016 was the widespread use of predictions expressed as probabilities. Once the private vice of data geeks, just about everyone in the ...

In a report summary released today Thomas McAndrew, a computational scientist and assistant professor at Lehigh University's College of Health includes probabilistic forecasts of the impact of ...

This article compares the skill of medium-range probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (PQPFs) generated via two postprocessing mechanisms: 1) the mixed-type meta-Gaussian distribution ...

This is a preview. Log in through your library . Abstract Conventional statistical postprocessing techniques offer limited ability to improve the skills of probabilistic guidance for heavy ...