Learn how prior probability informs economic theory and decision-making in Bayesian statistics. Understand its role before collecting new data.

Julia Kagan is a financial/consumer journalist and former senior editor, personal finance, of Investopedia. David Kindness is a Certified Public Accountant (CPA) and an expert in the fields of ...

Life is uncertain. None of us know what is going to happen. We know little of what has happened in the past or is happening now outside our immediate experience. Uncertainty has been called the ...

The mathematician Daniel Litt has driven social media users to distraction with a series of simple-seeming but counterintuitive probability puzzles. In late January, Daniel Litt posed an innocent ...

In A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities, published in 1814, Pierre-Simon Laplace introduced a notorious hypothetical creature: a “vast intelligence” that knew the complete physical state of the ...